# Dataset manifest for MKT-015 — if Lula wins again, what happens to the price
# of Brazilian risk?
# Schema: schemas/data-manifest.schema.json (EPIC §8.2).
#
# All series are exports from the command-center indicator warehouse (frame
# fr_6d66bb420fb169e6, freeze 2026-08-13T22:15:58Z). Market series are
# committed at reduced resolution (weekly or monthly) because the
# full-resolution feeds belong to their sources and are not redistributed;
# official IBGE/BCB statistics are committed in full. Headline counts in the
# paper (3,288-day percentile and median; the 868-window currency class) are
# computed on the full warehouse series; notebook.ipynb recomputes the checks
# on these committed copies, standard library only, no network access.
paper_id: MKT-015
license: cc-by-4.0

datasets:
  - id: br-cds-5y
    description: |
      Brazil five-year sovereign CDS in basis points, weekly last close committed from 3,288 daily closes (2017-04-15 to 2026-08-12).
      Freeze close 123.58.
      Plotted as Figure 1; full-series median 175.35 and the bottom-6-percent count are computed on the warehouse series.
    file: br_cds_5y.csv
    rows: 485
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: cds-feed via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [2017-04-15, 2026-08-12]
    license: proprietary-source-reduced
    sha256: 9188ec8b405e1adddc629e0e82aec3dcd27e490ae79d6cf504e57373a31d33a9

  - id: br-ntnb-2029
    description: |
      NTN-B 2029 real yield in percent, weekly last close.
      Not PIT-certified (paper section 7.4).
      Freeze 8.04.
    file: br_ntnb_2029.csv
    rows: 189
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: tesouro-direto via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [2023-01-09, 2026-08-12]
    license: public-source-reduced
    sha256: a676f243a10cade56a19c4030e9ded34940196e331ccc3eecfada329ae06c336

  - id: br-ntnb-2035
    description: |
      NTN-B 2035 real yield in percent, weekly last close.
      Freeze 7.97.
    file: br_ntnb_2035.csv
    rows: 787
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: tesouro-direto via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [2011-07-28, 2026-08-12]
    license: public-source-reduced
    sha256: 3deb3f93118573b8405c7c94183a913a676af7db8ae1b047e232bdae4dcadc01

  - id: br-ntnb-2045
    description: |
      NTN-B 2045 real yield in percent, weekly last close.
      Freeze 7.45.
    file: br_ntnb_2045.csv
    rows: 498
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: tesouro-direto via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [2017-02-08, 2026-08-12]
    license: public-source-reduced
    sha256: 7beea45bd7dedc1c325701299a1ee39ad09ad56eb73bfcaadeb38651b9bf3dd5

  - id: usdbrl
    description: |
      USDBRL, monthly first close committed from 5,486 daily closes (2003-11-30 to 2026-08-13).
      Deep proxy for br_usdbrl_ptax (63 obs, too thin).
      The ledger freeze reference is the 2026-08-12 close, 5.1904; the plus-10-percent threshold is 5.7094.
      Plotted as Figure 3; the 868-window crossing count is computed on the warehouse series.
    file: usdbrl.csv
    rows: 257
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: yahoo-finance via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [2003-11-30, 2026-08-13]
    license: proprietary-source-reduced
    sha256: 06572e0243fe845f31bf241e5079f2cb428999f1ac0a25a005154aac0882f24b

  - id: br-ipca-yoy
    description: |
      IPCA inflation, year-on-year percent, full monthly resolution (IBGE official series).
      Freeze print 4.44 for reference month 2026-07.
      Plotted as Figure 5; the 158-of-240 climatology check runs on this file.
    file: br_ipca_yoy.csv
    rows: 391
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: ibge-sidra via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [1994-01-01, 2026-07-01]
    license: cc-by-4.0
    sha256: 39543a0863751e5a94a2526d444b0b94336dc22f065bcea756062fc77b4776d1

  - id: br-selic-meta
    description: |
      Selic policy target in percent, monthly first observation.
      Freeze 14.0.
    file: br_selic_meta.csv
    rows: 327
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: bcb via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [1999-07-01, 2026-08-13]
    license: cc-by-4.0
    sha256: ba2c2d97f66398ff90a77c27baeaa7c1ec85e5305da791d169d2815396ece7a5

  - id: br-pnad-desocupacao
    description: |
      PNAD continuous unemployment rate in percent, quarterly, full resolution (IBGE official series).
      Last print 6.1 for 2026-03, 165 days stale at freeze.
    file: br_pnad_desocupacao.csv
    rows: 57
    schema:
      date: string
      value: float
    source: ibge-sidra via command-center warehouse
    collection_window: [2012-03-01, 2026-03-01]
    license: cc-by-4.0
    sha256: 3e263c82eb0cb4c58b7a96a31027c395c1c9420b4bdf6a6cfd12d07a9bb65e1d

  - id: ntnb-curve-freeze
    description: |
      The three NTN-B real yields at the freeze (2029, 2035, 2045).
      Plotted as Figure 2.
    file: ntnb_curve_freeze.csv
    rows: 3
    schema:
      tenor: string
      maturity: float
      real_yield: float
    source: "derived: command-center warehouse closes of 2026-08-12"
    collection_window: [2026-08-12, 2026-08-12]
    license: cc-by-4.0
    sha256: cc834a0fc963c5f36d309f71916a66b61fd463d5d3e6986f830e55d5cb46e21f

  - id: forecasts
    description: |
      The seven scoreable conditional forecasts with their declared reference-class base rates and k/n counts, from the operator ledger (cycle 7, freeze 2026-08-13T22:15:58Z).
      Plotted as Figure 4; tabulated as Table 1.
    file: forecasts.csv
    rows: 7
    schema:
      question: string
      label: string
      claim: string
      p_atol: float
      p_null: float
      null_n: float
      null_k: float
      null_class: string
      grounded: string
    source: operator-ledger frame fr_6d66bb420fb169e6
    collection_window: [2026-08-13, 2026-08-13]
    license: cc-by-4.0
    sha256: 06219af108ee98a1cb61908f3ece50026dc0550cfc53221aaea03c17877afbc6