# CSL YAML bibliography. See ADR-0001, ADR-0002.
references:
  - id: gs-note-2026
    type: report
    author:
      - { family: Hatzius, given: Jan }
      - { family: Pierdomenico, given: Giovanni }
      - { family: Stehn, given: Sven Jari }
    title: "The World Cup and Economics — World Cup 2026: Predictions, Probabilities and Paths to Victory"
    publisher: "Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 5, 29]] }

  - id: bloomberg-gs-2026
    type: webpage
    title: "Goldman's Model Shows Spain as 26% Probable World Cup Winner"
    container-title: "Bloomberg"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 5, 29]] }
    URL: "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/goldman-s-model-shows-spain-as-26-probable-world-cup-winner"

  - id: dixon-coles-1997
    type: article-journal
    author:
      - { family: Dixon, given: Mark J. }
      - { family: Coles, given: Stuart G. }
    title: "Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market"
    container-title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics)
    volume: 46
    issue: 2
    page: 265-280
    issued: { date-parts: [[1997]] }

  - id: elo-1978
    type: book
    author:
      - { family: Elo, given: Arpad E. }
    title: "The Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present"
    publisher: Arco
    publisher-place: New York
    issued: { date-parts: [[1978]] }

  - id: brier-1950
    type: article-journal
    author:
      - { family: Brier, given: Glenn W. }
    title: "Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability"
    container-title: Monthly Weather Review
    volume: 78
    issue: 1
    page: 1-3
    issued: { date-parts: [[1950]] }

  - id: martj42-results
    type: dataset
    author:
      - { family: Jürisoo, given: Mart }
    title: "International football results from 1872 to the present"
    publisher: GitHub
    URL: "https://github.com/martj42/international_results"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2024]] }

  - id: eloratings-net
    type: dataset
    title: "World Football Elo Ratings"
    publisher: eloratings.net
    URL: "https://www.eloratings.net"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026]] }

  - id: atol-mkt-004
    type: report
    author:
      - { literal: "ATOL Research" }
    title: "Picking the joint over the marginals: a conjunction prediction engine for the 2026 World Cup"
    publisher: "ATOL Research"
    number: "MKT-004"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 6, 3]] }

  - id: atol-mkt-005
    type: report
    author:
      - { literal: "ATOL Research" }
    title: "Field notes from an autonomous engineering fleet"
    publisher: "ATOL Research"
    number: "MKT-005"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 6, 11]] }