Atol Research is a quantitative research studio: statistical analysis, reference-class forecasting, and custom software for markets, nature, and culture.https://atolresearch.com/enhttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-012-chocolate-santa-catarina/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-012-chocolate-santa-catarina/Cocoa costs half what it did at its January 2025 peak. In Florianópolis the price of chocolate bars and bonbons has risen 13.7% this year, almost four times as fast as in Brazil, with Christmas and Easter ahead.Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTtradehttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-013-santa-catarina-china/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-013-santa-catarina-china/A southern state with one in twenty of Brazil's jobs bought a fifth of everything Brazil imported from China in 2025, and its governors have announced Chinese factories since 2012. A tax reform starts to remove the state's import credit in 2029.Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTtradehttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-011-overnight-returns/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-011-overnight-returns/A popular claim says that stocks rise while the exchange is closed and do not move while it is open. We split 33 years of the S&P 500, three other US funds and five markets abroad into the night and the day.Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-024-when-brazils-carry-stops-protecting-the-real/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-024-when-brazils-carry-stops-protecting-the-real/Brazil's interest-rate advantage compensated a US-dollar investor for depreciation of the real over the full period from January 2006 to October 2026, but the protection arrived unevenly.Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-010-betting-ban/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-010-betting-ban/On October 6, 2026 Brazil's 188 licensed betting sites went dark under a presidential decree, and the figure everyone quotes for what households get back is R$30 billion a month. We tested that figure, and what happened to the money after eight earlier bans, from Norway to India.Wed, 07 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmoneyhttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-005-ai-power-bills/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-005-ai-power-bills/Americans pay 39% more for a kilowatt-hour than in 2019, as data centers take a growing share of the country's power. We followed household prices across every state, the grid markets that set them, and Ireland, where data centres use almost a quarter of the electricity.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmoneyhttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-006-polymarket-arbitrage/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-006-polymarket-arbitrage/Researchers have counted $39.6 million of arbitrage on Polymarket: contracts that pay at least a dollar whatever happens, bought for less than a dollar. We replayed its order books millisecond by millisecond to see who can take it.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-007-sahm-rule/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-007-sahm-rule/In 2019 the economist Claudia Sahm proposed a simple test: when the three-month average jobless rate climbs half a point above its low of the past year, a recession has begun. We checked its record since 1970 on today's numbers, and since 1995 on the numbers as first published.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-008-maryland-power-bills/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-008-maryland-power-bills/Households at Maryland's four big utilities paid 14% more for a kilowatt-hour in the year from June 2025, when the price PJM sets for standby power jumped. The state's regulator pointed to the auction's costs. We split each utility's rise to measure them.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmoneyhttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-009-hang-seng/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-009-hang-seng/Hong Kong's main stock index stands 13% below its January high, as the US 10-year yield climbed to its highest since 2002 and oil passed $110. We tested two common readings of its moves, that US rates drag it down and that Beijing rescues it, on the Hang Seng since 1990.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-004-market-aftershocks/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-004-market-aftershocks/In 2003 two physicists showed that the wild minutes after the 1987 crash died away the way earthquake aftershocks do. We set the earthquake law against the volatility models traders already use, on 225 shocks in nine stock indices since 1962.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-022-sell-in-may/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-022-sell-in-may/Every spring the old saying comes back: sell your stocks in May and buy them back after Halloween. In 2002 two economists found that stocks had earned more from November to April than from May to October in 36 of 37 markets.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-023-critical-slowing-down/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-023-critical-slowing-down/Lakes, forests and the climate recover more slowly from small shocks as they near a tipping point, and the 2009 Nature paper that made the idea famous counted financial markets among such systems. We tested its warning signal on 497 crash weeks in nine stock indices since 2000.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-001-de-dollarization/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-001-de-dollarization/Central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold a year from 2022 to 2024, Russia and China settle their trade in rubles and yuan, and the dollar index fell 10.7% in the first half of 2025. We measured the dollar's share in five roles.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmoneyhttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-002-polymarket-perpetuals/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-002-polymarket-perpetuals/Polymarket opened perpetual futures on crypto, stocks, gold and oil to the public on September 3, promising the deepest liquidity and the lowest fees. Hyperliquid lists all 88 of its underlyings. We measured both venues on volume, books, fees and the cost of a trade.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-003-coffee-and-chocolate/https://atolresearch.com/reports/rpt-003-coffee-and-chocolate/Cocoa beans have lost almost half their price since January 2025 and arabica an eighth since November, yet coffee and chocolate cost as much as ever in the shops. We followed the price from the farm to the shelf.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-018-polymarket-options-premium/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-018-polymarket-options-premium/Polymarket lists daily contracts on whether Bitcoin and Ether close above a strike at noon Eastern, and Deribit's options price a near-identical event. On 2023 data, Victoria Portnaya's June 2026 study found Polymarket priced Bitcoin 5.6 to 12.5 points above the options.Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-017-bank-of-canada-october-hike/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-017-bank-of-canada-october-hike/The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% seven times, with core inflation near 2%. On September 20 Polymarket gave a quarter-point hike on October 28 a 38% chance.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTmoneyhttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-006-gs-comparison/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-006-gs-comparison/Two 2026 World Cup forecasts pick Spain and fade England. One came from a bank's research division, the other from one operator and a fleet of coding agents on free data.Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarketshttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-005-field-notes-from-an-autonomous-engineering-fleet/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-005-field-notes-from-an-autonomous-engineering-fleet/Building the pull-request body in code instead of prompting for it moved agent-PR structure compliance from 1 of 4 to 71 of 71.Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-004-conjunction-world-cup/https://atolresearch.com/papers/mkt-004-conjunction-world-cup/The engine picks one joint four-outcome ticket for the 2026 World Cup and gives it 0.94%, ten to twenty times a casual entry. Its champion probabilities beat the devigged closing line in three of the four past tournaments.Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTmarkets