Markets

Prices, forecasts and the markets that set them: where the crowd is right, where it is not, and by how much.

10/2026 Do the stock market's gains really all come overnight? Members only 10/2026 The free money on Polymarket lasts 200 milliseconds 10/2026 Has the Sahm rule ever given a false recession alarm? 10/2026 Do US rates sink Hong Kong stocks, and does Beijing rescue them? Members only 10/2026 What stock markets do in the weeks after a crash 10/2026 How much smaller is the stock market's winter lead since 2002? 65% 10/2026 What share of stock market crash weeks did ecology's warning flag? 27% 10/2026 A first look at Polymarket perpetuals Members only 10/2026 Why the price of your coffee and chocolate has not come down 09/2026 How many cents above options does Polymarket price Bitcoin a day out? 0.66¢ 06/2026 Will Spain win the 2026 World Cup? 24% 06/2026 Picking the joint over the marginals: a conjunction prediction engine for the 2026 World Cup

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